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Get Ready for Raila 5.0



Raila Odinga, despite running for the presidency for four times and failing all of them, will be the man to watch in 2022.

Raila was defeated in all the presidential elections he contested, at least officially. Moreover, all of these will not discourage him from running again and stand in the way of his claim to State House. For this reason, and because of the ‘handshake’, we should be getting ready for his last version – Raila 5.0

In 1997, Raila ran for the presidency and finished third behind President Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki. The election was not free and fair, and was marred with irregularities. Kibaki rejected the outcome and so was Raila. Contrary to his critics, Raila never claimed he won that election. By then, he did not have a national platform.

In 2002, Odinga did not contest the presidency, but it was one of his most successful political moments. He declared ‘Kibaki Tosha.’ Odinga led dozens of senior politicians including the then Vice President George Saitoti out of KANU and formed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which he merged it with the opposition party National Alliance (party of Kenya) to form the National Rainbow Alliance (Narc). It was in 2002, when Kenyans became the most hopeful people on earth.

Kibaki sidelined LDP when he formed the government in 2003. Kenyans’ hope died away when rift emerged between Kibaki’s and Raila’s wings of government.

In 2005, Odinga became stronger and gained countrywide popularity. He led the ‘NO’ team in rejecting the Bomas draft constitution, giving a resounding defeat to President Kibaki. This led to Raila 2.0 in 2007 when he almost became the president. He was more popular countrywide and was the face of the change Kenyans were yearning for. He was leading Mwai Kibaki in the result tallying one hour before his victory was snatched and the electoral commission announced Kibaki as the winner.

The 2013 presidential election – Raila 3.0 – was his worst. His presidential campaign was disorganised and most members of the team he formed in 2007 deserted him. He became a wounded and lonely man.

The opposition NASA picked him as its flag bearer in 2017 despite his failure to win the presidency in previous three attempts. Raila 4.0 again flopped because of rigging which the Supreme Court confirmed.

Now, whether you like it or not, get ready for Raila 5.0 in 2022. We have a president who is retiring. Free, fair and credible elections do happen in third world countries when the incumbent president is not contesting. Unsurprisingly, a William Ruto presidency is seen as a continuation of Uhuru’s. Then, there is the handshake. When the former prime minister shook hands with President Uhuru Kenyatta and vowed to work with him, he was ‘offered the presidency’ in 2022, in whichever form it comes, executive or non-executive.

For those who believe Odinga should retire from politics and leave it for younger people. In Kenya, we do not have young people competing in high-level politics. If you mean Deputy President William Ruto, he will be 56-57 years old. This is not being young. Odinga will trounce Ruto. Central Kenya will support him rather than back a candidate of their own. Other opposition leaders like Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi who were waiting to take over from him will be fuming, and will claim Mr Odinga is stealing their show. But they revealed themselves to be political amateurs when the former prime minister resolved to work with President Uhuru Kenyatta. Either of them could play the role of opposition leader in the absence of Mr Odinga.

Beating an incumbent is never easy. This time Mr. Odinga will not be contesting against a sitting president and a system that wants to retain the status quo. The president and the system are likely to support him against the deputy president, who is believed to be hawkish.

Mr. Odinga will run on promises to fight corruption, rebuild the economy that has been shuttered under Jubilee, reform public institutions, and create jobs. He will emerge as an unstoppable candidate because his presumed rival William Ruto will not be able to run on these promises. By 2022, Ruto would be in government for 10 years, and cannot promise to do what he could not achieve in the last one decade.

Odinga’s fifth bid to State House will be his easiest election ever.

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The ODM Win in Kibra Is What Happens When You Have a Smart Ground Game

For Ruto’s Tangatanga group, the Kibra by-election was actually what Kenyans call ‘kwa ground, vitu ni tofauti’



On Thursday, the people of Kibra reaffirmed their support for the Orange Democratic Movement party by electing its candidate Imran Okoth in a by-election seen as a popularity contest between former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and the deputy president, William Ruto.

They voted to make sure ODM retains it seat after the death of its Member of Parliament Ken Okoth, even when Ruto spent unprecedented amount of money to change the voting pattern and flip the constituency to Jubilee – his wing of Jubilee.

“This is our bedroom, we must secure it,” Odinga told his supporters.  On Thursday, they did it.

The win was made possible by loyal party supporters and the kind of candidate ODM had in Okoth, and the party machinery that made the constituency one of its strongholds. It was also as a result of diversity of the party supporters and members.

Things were always good for ODM in Kibra. The party had the grassroots muscle but the desperate Tangatanga group began to use money and insults. But that didn’t matter; voters sent a clear message that it remains an ODM stronghold.

Money and division were on the ballot on Thursday, after a campaign polluted by insults from Ruto’s Jubilee, and dishing out money during the campaign and on the actual election day. But money lost.  Ruto and his team used everything – and nothing worked for them.

The deputy president promised the Kibra people prosperity if they elect his candidate. He dismissed the work of the late MP, Ken Okoth, who was regarded as one of Kenya’s best MPs when it comes on the use of constituency fund, and his projects uplifting the lives of his people – improving the standard of education, creating jobs for the youth, and creating enabling environment for local businesses to thrive, among others. Ruto paraded himself a champion of the poor when he is not.

Okoth ran a campaign that focused on housing affordability, providing water and electricity, expanding education opportunities, and continuing his late brother’s legacy to further develop the constituency.

While Ruto was not on the ballot on October 7 by-election, the Kibra race offered a reminder that his presence has pervaded the race.

Issues do matter in an election, but not so much in Kenya. However, in Kibra, voters must have looked at the work of Imran Okoth. Okoth took care of the Kibra constituents’ needs when his brother was ill and hospitalised in a foreign country. He was the chairman of the local constituency fund. Ruto’s candidate, Mc Donald Mariga, a former football player, is not a resident of Kibra and has never voted in any election, not even on Thursday because he is not a registered voter in the constituency he wanted to lead.

Ruto insisted this special election was a contest between the opposition party ODM and the ruling Jubilee. He was wrong. Actually, the Kibra election was a contest between the handshake and Tangatanga. Close allies of President Uhuru Kenyatta support Okoth’s election. It was between those backing the drive to unite the people of Kenya and those working hard to divide Kenyans along party and tribal lines.

ODM’s neglect cost the party two seat, one in Nyanza and another in Nairobi’s Embakassi South. So, they could not afford anyone to come too close to ‘Raila’s bedrock.’

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Kibra Voters Must Defeat Ruto’s Project

The deputy president has poured unprecedented amount of money and runs a zombie campaign in Kibra



When the people of Kibra head to the polls this Thursday, they will have the chance to vote in one of the most consequential parliamentary elections the country has ever seen.

Bernard Imran Okoth, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate for Thursday’s Kibra by-election, is running against Deputy President William Ruto. Okoth’s rival in this race is actually a former footballer who was handpicked by Ruto, but voters in the overwhelmingly ODM constituency are aware that McDonald Mariga is just a project who is being used as a litmus test, and not a serious candidate with an agenda.

Okoth runs a campaign that focuses on housing affordability, providing water and electricity, expanding education opportunities, and continuing his late brother’s legacy to further develop the constituency.

Ruto is promising the people of Kibra ‘transformation’ if they vote for Mariga; ending poverty, building 5,000 units and creating employment. What prevented the deputy government from doing all these in the last seven years? The answer is very simple. Ruto does not care about the people of Kibra, he is just using them to test his political influence.

While Ruto is not on the ballot on October 7 by-election, the Kibra race offers a reminder that his presence has pervaded the race.

Now, Okoth is running against Ruto rather than the actual ‘Jubilee’ candidate. The Kibra by-election is a ‘vote against Ruto.’

By midnight, when Okoth is announced as the MP-elect for Kibra, William Ruto will get to know trying to ‘invade Raila’s bedroom’ was not an easy job. Raila Odinga, the former prime minister, will continue to maintain his political status in his bedrock spanning more than thirty years.

In a constituency that gave ODM’s Ken Okoth 78 percent of the total votes in the 2017 general election, it is would be very difficult for Ruto to deliver a Mariga win that he desperately needs. The fact is that Kibra remains an ODM zone. Ruto may have become popular, politically, in some parts of this country. He forgot that politics is still local. His candidate is not a resident of Kibra, is not a registered voter in Kibra, and has never vote not only in Kibra but in his entire life.

Ruto insists this special election is a contest between the opposition party ODM and the ruling Jubilee. He is wrong. Actually, the Kibra election is a contest between the handshake and Tangatanga. Close allies of President Uhuru Kenyatta support Okoth’s election. It is between those backing the drive to unite the people of Kenya and those working hard to divide Kenyans along party and tribal lines. A heavy loss in Kibra will devastate Ruto and his Tangatanga allies.

The deputy president has poured unprecedented amount of money into this race and is running a zombie campaign in Kibra to influence its outcome, aimed to ‘teach Raila a lesson.’ Instead, voters will teach him a lesson when they defeat his project.

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Gulf Geopolitics Threatens Somalia’s Stability



Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi 'Farmajo'

When Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf countries and Egypt blockaded and cut diplomatic ties with Qatar in May 2017 for what they said was Doha’s “support for Iran and terrorism”, Somalia remained neutral and offered to mediate.

Unlike many Muslim nations which sided with Saudi Arabia and cut or downgraded their diplomatic ties with Qatar, Somalia called for a diplomatic solution to end the crisis. Saudi Arabia and its allies took Somalia’s stand as “support for Qatar.”

The Gulf crisis that was meant to isolate Qatar is ripping Somalia apart and created divisions between the federal and state governments.  Somalia’s regional administrations took advantage of Mogadishu’s weakness and sided with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt in their efforts to sideline Qatar. The function of foreign affairs falls under the federal government and the states have no any role in it. It was a breach of the country’s constitution, according to the government in Mogadishu.

Saudi Arabia and its allies tried to persuade Mogadishu to end ties with Doha but the latter rejected the idea. The local media reported at the time that the UAE “tried to bribe President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo with hundreds of millions of dollars to side with them but Farmajo declined the offer.”

In 2014, when Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran after protesters stormed its embassy in Tehran over the execution of a Shia cleric, Namr al Namr, in Saudi Arabia, Somalia followed suit and cut ties with Iran, but denied it was siding with Saudi Arabia. It said Iran was a threat to its national security and closed down Imam khamanei Cultural Centre in Mogadishu. That same day, Saudi Arabia offered Somalia 50m dollars in aid.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is involved in a port modernisation programme in Berbera in Somaliland – a break-away region in northwest Somalia which declared independence from the rest of Somalia in 1991 when President Siyad Barre was toppled by an alliance of clan militia. Abu Dhabi is also building a military base in Berbera.

Somalia considers Somaliland part of its territory and views the port deal between the UAE and Somaliland “null and void and against its constitution.” The parliament in Mogadishu nullified the military base agreement between the UAE and Somaliland. Another UAE-owned company, P&O, made a deal with Puntland – a federal member state in northeast Somalia and is managing the Port of Bosaso.

The Somali central government feels undermined when foreign nations make deals with state governments and says it has the constitutional right to sign every deal involving a foreign player on behalf of all Somalia – including Somaliland.

Relations between Somalia and the UAE deteriorated further when Somali security agencies seized a UAE plane carrying close to 10m dollars in Mogadishu airport. UAE said the money was meant to pay salaries of Somali army and an anti-piracy force in Puntland. Mogadishu said the money was meant to use to destabilise the country.

The immediate former leader of Puntland, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, visited Dubai and expressed his support for the Emiratis after a diplomatic dispute between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi.

“Mogadishu is not Somalia, and Somalia is not Mogadishu,” he said.

For five years, the UAE had been training Somali forces and built an anti-piracy force in Puntland and paid their salaries. That came to an end in April when the two countries ended their military cooperation.

In retaliation, the UAE closed a hospital in the capital, Mogadishu, Sheikh Zayed Hospital, which treated more than 300 Somalis daily.

Qatar, which invested close to a half a billion dollars in health, roads, education and humanitarian assistance in Somalia, donated 30 buses to Mogadishu city administration, after the UAE stooped its assistance to Somalia. Qatar’s projects are mainly concentrated in Mogadishu.

The Gulf crisis and the differences it created between the Somali central government and regional administrations are undermining the government’s and international community’s effort to restore peace and stability and build an effective central authority. It could also destabilise the country and hamper the war on Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda-linked group which is fighting to overthrow the Mogadishu government.

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